Projected change in water stress (RCP8.5) 2030

With the goal of producing information for decadal-scale planning, adaptation, and investment, the Aqueduct Water Stress Projections model potential changes in future demand and supply of water over the next 3 decades. Global indicators were developed for water demand (withdrawal and consumptive use), water supply, water stress (the ratio of water withdrawal to supply), and intra-annual (seasonal) variability for the periods centered on 2020, 2030, and 2040 for each of 2 climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and 2 shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2 and SSP3.

Source: Luck, M., M. Landis, F. Gassert. 2015. “Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal projections of water supply and demand using CMIP5 GCMs.” Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.

Licence: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/]

Year of content: 2010-2040

Data and Resources

This dataset has no data

Additional Info

Field	Value
Source	https://app.mapx.org/static.html?views=MX-1L2TA-6FXPV-N3QMX&zoomToViews=true#JAAc6
Author	UNEP/GRID-Geneva
Maintainer	UNEP/GRID-Geneva
Last Updated	December 7, 2022, 07:53 (UTC)
Created	December 7, 2022, 07:53 (UTC)
GUID	MX-1L2TA-6FXPV-N3QMX
Issued	2019-01-08 18:44:32
Language	EN
Modified	2020-01-20 14:08:48
Publisher email	info@mapx.org
Publisher name	UNEP/GRID-Geneva
Theme	Web Map
data_type	geospatial
keywords_m49	WLD
projects_description	NEAT+ Global
projects_id	MX-WJO-FOV-NNB-1BN-SZN
projects_title	NEAT+ Global
range_end_at_year	2040
range_start_at_year	2010
source_abstract	The Aqueduct Water Stress Projections Data include indicators of change in water supply, water demand, water stress, and seasonal variability, projected for the coming decades under scenarios of climate and economic growth. Both private and public sectors see the need to plan for potential changes in water availability caused by climate change and economic development. While significant effort has been made to develop long-term projections of changes in water availability caused by climate change, these projections are often for time periods too far in the future to be salient to decision-makers. With the goal of producing information for decadal-scale planning, adaptation, and investment, this analysis models potential changes in future demand and supply of water over the next three decades. Globally we estimate indicators of water demand (withdrawal and consumptive use), water supply, water stress (the ratio of water withdrawal to supply), and intra-annual (seasonal) variability for the periods centered on 2020, 2030, and 2040 for each of two climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2 and SSP3. We derived estimates from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and mixed-effects regression models based on projected socioeconomic variables from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) database. Full documentation at https://www.wri.org/research/aqueduct-water-stress-projections-decadal-projections-water-supply-and-demand-using-cmip5
source_title	Projected change in water stress
spatial	WLD