Projected timing of annual severe coral bleaching (annual exceedance of 8 Degree Heating Weeks of thermal stress in reef areas) under SSP5-8.5 using CMIP6 models

The data and complementary report have two purposes, and are intended for use by the global coral reef scientific and management community, which had these 2 objectives.

Objective 1. To present projections of coral bleaching conditions (i.e., exposure to the primary climate threat to coral reefs) and potential adaptation at a spatial scale that enables use of the data in management and conservation planning and in support of other decisions influencing coral reefs and reef use. Objective 2. To evaluate the implications of the Paris Agreement as well as failure to achieve its goal, by comparing the projected timing of annual severe bleaching between Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5.

Data source used: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Interpolation Project Phase 6 (CMIP6 [https://www.ipcc-data.org/]) model outputs for sea surface temperature, combined with United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CoralTemp data from NOAA Coral Reef Watch [https://www.coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_sst.php].

Credits: UNEP 2020. Projections of future coral bleaching conditions using IPCC CMIP6 models: climate policy implications, management applications, and Regional Seas summaries. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.