Projections of Future Coral Bleaching Conditions using IPCC CMIP6 Models: Climate Policy Implications, Management Applications, and Regional Seas Summaries

The purpose of this report is threefold: 1. To present projections of coral bleaching conditions (i.e., exposure to the primary climate threat to coral reefs) and potential adaptation at a spatial scale that enables use of the data in management and conservation planning and in support of other decisions influencing coral reefs and reef use; 2. To evaluate the implications of the Paris Agreement as well as failure to achieve its goal, by comparing the projected timing of annual severe bleaching between Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5; and 3. To provide public access to the projections data as well as the main findings to catalyze research that extends the purposes and applications described in 1 and 2, and informs new research.