This report is a product of the Global Methane Assessment (GMA) that details projections of anthropogenic methane emissions through 2030 under various baseline scenarios and assesses the climate benefits of achieving the Global
Methane Pledge target compared to the impacts of those baseline emissions. In 2022 GMP Partners requested that UNEP perform further analysis of baseline
emissions scenarios to establish a harmonized estimate of the expected growth in
methane emissions through 2030 absent additional action as well as to compare
the impacts of the GMP with those baseline emissions. The objectives of this
Report include a more complete characterization of future baseline emissions, as
well as easing comparison of GMA conclusions, which are communicated against
approximate baseline emission levels in 2030, against the GMP target, which is
set against 2020 emissions levels. This analysis also allows us to highlight the
importance of early and targeted methane mitigation by assessing the climate
benefits of the GMP target against expected increasing methane emissions under
the baseline emissions scenarios, and compare them to the impact of addressing
methane solely through a decarbonization strategy.