Elements of a New Climate Agreement by 2015 - Perspective Series 2013

This chapter describes the gap between expected emissions in 2020 according to country pledges and the emissions consistent with the 2°C target, assuming the emission reduction proposals in the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements are met. It is based on the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2012 updated with decisions taken late 2012. The estimated emissions gap in 2020 for a “likely” chance of being on track to stay below the 2°C target is 8 to 12 GtCO2e (depending on how emission reduction pledges are implemented). This emissions gap has become larger compared to the previous UNEP assessment, because of higher than expected economic growth and the inclusion of “double counting” of emission offsets in the calculations. The emissions gap could be narrowed through implementing the more stringent, conditional pledges, minimising the use of “lenient” credits from forests and surplus emission units, avoiding double-counting of offsets and implementing measures beyond current pledges. Closing the gap will increasingly become more difficult with more time passing.